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you re in now and what s the basis for your decision about what to buy, why you re buying it, and what signs do you look for to tell you that you might have been wrong And more importantly, what would make you reverse it Arthur: Yeah, Dan, well John made the point before I really do think that there s more coming in ation and a weak dollar The way I ve sort of protected myself from that in ation, what I use as a hedge is, I bought the TBT Daniel It s an ETF that s a doubleshort on the government long bond, so if interest rates go up I win, if they go down, I lose I bought it with US Treasury rates at about 3 percent and made some money on it, now the yield s come down again.

20 40 60

Listing 2.21 (continued)

1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1

It s down today, and my decision is whether or not I should sell it Do I have a stop-loss on it where you say, Get the heck out And you know, I don t like those rules either, you know like somebody said it was what, 8 percent Dan: Yes, that was William O Neil Arthur: Right, William O Neil Well, I have great respect for Mr O Neil, but I don t agree with that Like John, I asked myself if I still think this is a correct bet and whether I think interest rates will go up In this particular case, I do believe interest rates are going up, I do believe in ation s a real threat, and therefore I don t want this out of my portfolio.

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setItemDetail(cISBN, cName, cQty, cPrice, getltemNo0); setItemNo(getItemNo() + 1);

1. 2. 1. 2.

I really don t have to know to the moment or to the dollar when or how much rates will rise I just believe strongly that they will A little move one way or the other, in the absence of major changes in policy, means very little to me My decision right now, Dan, is not whether I should sell it, but whether I should double-down and buy some more of it Now I ve just got it as a hedge right now, but I m thinking of buying more of it, making it an investment, and selling some of the assets I m using it to protect Dan: Wait a minute, that s very intriguing I d like for you to explain that one again Arthur: Right, well I ve got some stocks and other things that will go down if interest rates go up.

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can be combined into a sequence of trades using the notion of the complex position mentioned earlier.

0 1 0 0 1

So I bought the TBT really as a hedge against those stocks Dan: You bought the negative treasury, it goes double the opposite of Treasuries Arthur: Yes, so if interest rates and in ation rise, I ve sort of hedged my portfolio of stocks What I m thinking about doing right now is selling off some of those stocks that have done very well, taking.

foreseen the meltdown and gone to 100 percent cash or at least fully hedging our long positions How did we miss something that seems 100 percent obvious (with the bene t of hindsight, of course, which is always 20/20) Second, we want to stop the pain and it s very painful losing money seemingly every day, month after month, especially when it s not only your own money but, more importantly, also the savings of many friends and family members who have put their trust in you There s an easy way to stop the pain and prevent future losses, of course sell everything and sit in cash until the situation stabilizes and stocks have started to recover Surely there will be plenty of time to get back in, right This is the approach being taken by more and more investors every day, which is contributing to the market meltdown.

_ tanh 2x. Computation gives: 1 2

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